Sherlock Holmes and The Chipmunks: When Sequels Are Weak-quels

The soft openings for two top franchises bring more bad news to Hollywood: now the industry can't even bank on retreads

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Warner Bros.

Noomi Rapace, Robert Downey Jr. and Jude Law in Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows.

This was supposed to be the weekend when sequels rode in to rescue the dilapidated movie industry. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows, with Robert Downey, Jr., and Jude Law returning as Holmes and Watson under Guy Ritchie’s baton, would lure the young male audience away from their video games and back into theaters. And the singing CGI critters of Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked would play to the movie year’s one reliable demographic: kiddies and their moms. Sherlock and Alvin would score big and give a happy holiday to Hollywood after a year when the box office has behaved very badly.

(READ: Corliss’ review of Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows)

Instead, Sherlock 2 stumbled to a debut of $40 million, according to preliminary studio estimates. Though that was enough to win the weekend at the North American box office, it was 36% off the $62.3 million opening of Sherlock 1, which went on to a $524 million worldwide total. Early audiences did give the sequel an “A” CinemaScore, but Warner Bros. would rather have big bucks than good grades. Alvin 3, which stranded the cartoon rodents in a Gilligan’s Island installment, grossed $23.5 million — a dreadful 53% below the $49.9 million that Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel pulled in two Christmases ago.

(READ: Mary Pols’ parental-guidance advisory on Chipwrecked)

Sequels have long been Hollywood’s most dependable form of money-minting. They accounted for five of the 10 top-grossing films of 2006; six of the top eight in 2007; two of the top three in 2008; three of the top five in 2009; four of the top five in 2011. This year will be no exception: so far, the top seven box-office winners are sequels. What should be troubling to the sponsors of these expensive retreads is that the 2011 editions are not attracting the giant crowds of their previous episodes. Sequels are no longer equals. They’re weakquels. In some cases, pretty damn bleakquels.

(READ: TIME’s 10 Best Movies of 2011)

We compared the performance of this year’s big-budget sequels to their immediate predecessors. For purposes of getting an even 10 franchises — and since the same director and writer used the same holiday-romance format with a different group of stars — we considered New Year’s Eve a sequel to Valentine’s Day. Most of the films have concluded their theatrical run; for those still in theaters, we checked how the previous chapter did in the same number of days. Moguls, read ’em and weep:

Fast and Furious, 2009, $155 million; Fast Five, $209.8 million; UP 35%

Harry Potter 7.1, 2010, $295 million; Harry Potter 7.2, $381 million; UP 29%

Twilight 3, 2010, $282 million (first four weeks); Twilight 4.1, $262.1 million (same period); DOWN 9%

The Hangover, 2009, $277.3 million, The Hangover Part II, $254.4 million; DOWN 9%

Transformers 2, 2009, $402.1 million; Transformers 3, $352.4 million; DOWN 12%

Pirates of the Caribbean 3, 2007, $309.4 million; Pirates 4, $241 million; DOWN 22%

Cars, 2006, $244.1 million; Cars 2, $191.5 million; DOWN 22%

Kung Fu Panda, 2008, $215 million; Kung Fu Panda 2, $165 million; DOWN 23%

Happy Feet, 2006 (first four weeks), $141.9 million; Happy Feet Two, $58 million (same period); DOWN 60%

Valentine’s Day, 2010, $63.1 million (first 10 days); New Year’s Eve, $24.8 million (same period); DOWN 61%

Eight of the 10 new films did worse than their immediate predecessors, despite a rise in ticket prices; in terms of tickets sold, the record is even worse. Note that the animated sequels, which usually cost hundreds of millions to produce, are among the worst performers; that has to bum out the folks at Pixar and DreamWorks. And the drop can’t be attributed simply to audience burnout after multiple exposures to the same franchise, since the only two that improved on their earlier record were Harry Potter in its eighth installment and the Fast & Furious series in its fifth. The boy wizard, having vanquished Voldemort, won’t be generating any more sequels, which leaves only Vin Diesel’s car chase-and-crash crazies, coming off their strongest episode. Could Fast Five‘s success be attributed to TIME’s calling it “first great post-human movie”?

(READ: Why Corliss won’t shut up about Fast Five)

One new sequel could outstrip its predecessor. Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol, the fourth in Tom Cruise’s spinoffs of the ’60s TV spy show, crept into 425 IMAX theaters and earned $13.6 million, for more than $30,000 per screen. This propulsive launch suggests that, after a muted $134 million for the total run of the third Mission: Impossible film six years ago, Cruise could be rebounding from a long slump with this swashbuckling blockbuster. It’s still early days — the movie doesn’t open wide until Wednesday — but Hollywood will take good news wherever and whenever it can.

(READ: Corliss’ take on Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol)

Down in the art houses, Roman Polanski’s Carnage opened in five theaters and earned $85,696, for an OK $17,139 per-screen average. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy expanded from four to 16 screens in its second week and has amassed $851,842 in 10 days. Young Adult, with Charlize Theron joining the Juno writer-director team for a tale of a high-school princess who’s 20 years past her prom, swaggered into nearly a thousand theaters and got a chilly reception: $3.65 million. No happy reunion there. The Artist, the no-talkie comedy-romance that keeps piling up Best Film awards and nominations, is still playing it coy, up to just 17 theaters in its fourth week. So far the film has earned $1.3 million, but there should be plenty more coming for French director Michel Hazanavicius’ prize-winner as it expands for its pre-Oscar run.

One note of caution to Monsieur Hazanavicius: Even if your film wins the Academy Award for Best Picture… you might want to steer clear of The Artist Deux.

(READ: Mary Corliss’ paean to The Artist)

Here are the Sunday estimates of this weekend’s top-grossing pictures in North American theaters, as reported by Box Office Mojo:

  1. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows, $40 million, first weekend
  2. Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked, $23.5 million, first weekend
  3. Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol, $13.6 million, first weekend
  4. New Year’s Eve, $7.4 million; $24.8 million, second week
  5. The Sitter, $4.4 million; $17.7 million, second week
  6. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1, $4.3 million; $266.4 million, fifth week
  7. Young Adult, $3.65 million; $4.1 million, second week
  8. Hugo, $3.625 million; $39.1 million, fourth week
  9. Arthur Christmas, $3.6 million; $38.5 million, fourth week
  10. The Muppets, $3.5 million; $70.9 million, fourth week