Ouch! Conan Slaps Down NBC, Will Quit if Tonight Moves to 12:05

very well played by Conan. And very well parsed here!

But a thought just occurred to me: is this whole thing just a ploy to boost Conan’s ratings? Are we mistaking NBC’s ongoing cluelessness for deceptive cleverness? [pause for derisive laughter]

I have nothing but my gut to back this up, but there may be a kind of NBC cleverness here: if they hoped the 12:05 move was so unpalatable that Conan would quit, eliminating the requirement to pay him off.

Greatest. Public Relations Statement. Ever.

Seriously, ABC/FOX — hell, even CBS as succcessor to Dave (who, in all honesty, I think Conan has a lot more in common with) should be LINING UP to nab Conan for their lineups. I mean Conan in NYC and Craig in LA? Talk about the best late night lineup EVER….

[...] James Poniewozik “translates” some of the choicer comments. [...]

good point: trying to make Conan the one to blame for an eventual departure ..

I’m not so sure about that, James. If TMZ is to be believed, which is admittedly a big if, NBC would be in breach of their contract with Conan for moving back the start time, which means Conan can walk and still be entitled to the money.

alynch3: It is a big if, or more than one. I don’t know what’s in Conan’s contract, but it’s reported elsewhere that NBC has a clause allowing a pushback as late as 12:05. And for all I know, they sincerely want to have their Jay and their Conan too. All I know is, through this whole fiasco dating back to 2004, avoiding contractual payoffs has played heavily (maybe too heavily) in their decision making.

[...] January 12, 2010 Conan: I won't do "The Tonight Show" at 12:05 "I cannot participate in what I honestly believe is its destruction," Conan O'Brien said this afternoon in a statement released to "People of Earth." "Some people will make the argument that with DVRs and the Internet a time slot doesn’t matter. But with the 'Tonight Show,' I believe nothing could matter more. There has been speculation about my going to another network but, to set the record straight, I currently have no other offer and honestly have no idea what happens next. My hope is that NBC and I can resolve this quickly so that my staff, crew, and I can do a show we can be proud of, for a company that values our work." PLUS: Odds of Conan on Fox seem long, at the moment. Conan isn't quitting — he's declaring war on NBC! Conan is saying: I'm not about to get screwed over for NBC's incompetence [...]

Oops, I forgot to link the article I was referencing:

http://tinyurl.com/y8zj33z

Anyway, I read those reports there’s a clause allowing The Tonight Show to be pushed back, but TMZ’s claim otherwise was in direct response to those reports. I too only have my gut to go on, but I’m leaning towards believing TMZ on this issue.

If it is in fact true that NBC can’t make this move without Conan’s approval, then his statement takes on a whole new meaning: “You’re going to have to fire me cause I ain’t moving.”

By the way, James, I’ve been curious: does this make you think your “future of TV” cover in August was overstated or UNDERstated? And I know you kind of dealt with this in the piece, but does “future of prime time TV” = “future of NBC” ? or are they a special case.

As an aside, I read Bill Carter’s book on the early 90s Tonight Show transition around the time it was announced Conan would take over. I was appalled by the inside story of the early 90s and thought, “Well, at least they won’t screw this up that bad again!”

Just about all the analysis indicates that NBC meets their contractual obligations by airing “The Tonight Show with Conan O’Brien” at any point up to 11:05; that is the entire point of NBC creating their bizzaro 30 minute version of Leno, rather than just pushing everyone back a timeslot.

This is Conan stating “Either I keep my current job or I am gone – and Leno won’t be around forever.”

Wow, the hits just keep on coming. I love that he starts off the statement with “People of Earth:”, awesome….is it bad that now I really can’t wait for what Craig has to say about all this on his show tonight?

Good for Conan. Only at NBC does failure get rewarded with a promotion. Way to piss off the younger, more lucrative demographics. Does NBC realize that anyone who thinks Leno is funny is going to be dead in 20 years? That is not the demographic for long term thinking.

I pretty much think now what I thought them. I mean, I didn’t write that “future of TV” cover line, and I explicitly had no prediction whether the Leno show itself would succeed or fail. But as far as the existence of The Leno Show pointing to TV’s future–cost-cutting, shrinkage & turmoil as people try to find a business model that works, that’s still where we are. NBC had the wrong solution, but the problems (revenue, audience fragmentation, DVRs, &c &c) are still the same.
As for “future of primetime” vs “future of NBC”–that’s a good question. I think that when there are systemic problems in broadcast, it will naturally fall harder on the fourth-place network. So NBC had more incentive than CBS to try to stake out a new business model. I think CBS is right to say IT is doing fine with the old model. But it may no longer be possible for THREE networks to thrive doing that, programming three hours of scripted primetime a night. If they can’t make the numbers add up, they will have to do SOMETHING, even if it is not Leno.

NY times reported that his contract has no time stipulation, only that he be able to host the “Tonight Show”. The payout for NBC breaking contract was $45 million.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/12/business/media/12conan.html

Frankly, I think NBC takes more of a hit for this than Conan will.

Hey James, what do you think will happen if Conan were to go to FOX? Would he compete directly with Jay and Dave, or more likely to take some odd time slot?

And like Lettermen wanted to know, what about Carson Daily? has no one considered his feelings?

What are the possibilities of NBC just outright saying no to Jay? Canceling the show as planned on February 11th, and then just letting Jay ride off into the sun. I personally don’t think this is likely, but I think there is a chance.

Also, does this make Jay or Jimmy the host of The Tonight Show?

Honestly? I’d be concerned for Conan, if he would be up at 11 p.m. on Fox. That puts him square against Jon Stewart and Colbert, and you’ll recall some theorized that Colbert hurt his Tonight ratings. (Theory being that many Comedy Central viewers would then watch a half-hour of Dave, then Conan.)
Other possibility: to the extent Conan overlaps Dave and Jay, he takes more from Dave. And again Jay walks unscathed as the world collapses around him.
But I suck at ratings predictions and try not to make them.

I have a hard time believing Conan would have agreed to a contract that allowed the Tonight Show to be moved back to 12:05. If he did, well then it means that this possibility was contemplated back when the deals were being done in 2003. That seems a little far-fetched. Why would NBC think they may move the Tonight Show to 12:05 back then?

Also, if that’s true, then there’s not really any reason for him to mince words, if he is quitting, then he is quitting. But he clearly avoids saying that, simply saying that he won’t do the Tonight Show at 12:05. Conan’s statement makes it sound like he has a choice in the matter and that NBC needs his approval. If it’s contractually required, then there’s no discussion to be had. Either Conan agrees or quits.

But regardless, Conan is making it clear that he is not going along with it. Maybe he will get a payout under his contract, maybe he won’t. Either way he has made his choice. So now NBC has to decide whether they want Leno or Conan. I guess one issue may be who will cost more to pay off.

Another interesting thought is if they boot Conan from the Tonight Show and give it back to Leno, will the whole debacle hurt Leno’s returning ratings? The marketing for Leno’s “return” would be interesting to see.

[...] Tuned In A blog about television by TIME’s TV critic James Poniewozik. Tuned In Feed   Daily E-mail Updates   « PreviousOuch! Conan Slaps Down NBC, Will Quit if Tonight Moves to 12:05 [...]

[...] more on Time Magazine Tags: Conan, down, Ouch, Smacks, threatens, Walk Comments RSS [...]

Jeff Zucker must go at NBC… that is all… a colossal screw up from the Ben Silverman tenure to this Leno boongoggle…

[...] leave decoding Conan O’Brien’s missive and surmising his potential options to the real experts.  But after spending most of the afternoon on Twitter reading snap judgments and their linked to [...]

[...] forgot the article. And while I never really had anything against Zucker, I have nonetheless found the complete hash he's made of things at NBC this week to be somehow perversely satisfying. Does this make me a bad [...]

If NBC has to make a choice between Jan and Conan, they are going to take Jay. Conan, pack your bags, you are leaving. They are going to take Jay and give him back the Tonight Show.
I told everyone that Jay would fail with a variety Show. He’s no Dean Martin. The first few shows were good. After that, I would rather watch “Animal Planet”.

[...] Ouch! Conan Slaps Down NBC, Will Quit if Tonight Moves to 12:05 … [...]

[...] Ouch! Conan Slaps Down NBC, Will Quit if Tonight Moves to 12:05 NBC wanted a decision quick, and it got one: Conan O’Brien says he will quit [Update: or to be precise, all but [...] [...]

[...] Ouch! Conan Slaps Down NBC, Will Quit if Tonight Moves to 12:05 … [...]

[...] how Conan O'Brien put it in his immortal 'People of Earth' missive. You've got to imagine Barack Obama is thinking similar thoughts today. Yeah, Scott Brown's [...]

[...] after Conan's "People of Earth" statement, NBC quietly hoped he would reconsider his options and decide to accept the network's plan. That [...]