Tuned In

Will the Last Person to Watch a Broadcast Network Please Turn Off the Set?

Why, you wonder, is NBC turning over a third of its weeknight programming to Jay Leno? There are specific reasons having to do with the in-the-toiletness of NBC at present, but there are also, as they say, systemic causes. Namely, no one is watching broadcast-network TV. 

Well, not no one. But a new study has found viewership sharply down for the big networks this season, even as it has risen for cable. (The study, I must note, come from Turner Networks, which is part of Time Warner like Time magazine is, and which has an interest in pointing out good news for cable networks.)

How bad is it? Only eight of 66 returning shows have gained viewers. And five of them are on CBS, where, to be fair, a good chunk of the viewership is still tuned to the network because that was what happened to be on the TV when they died. 

The upshot, as I’ve said before: the broadcast networks are now simply large cable networks. Whether giving a show to Jay Leno specifically is a good idea is one thing. But the larger point is that inevitably, the networks need to program more like cable channels, with more targeted spending on their scripted series. 

One big driver of the rise in cable viewing, apparently: the news networks, and thus, the election. For the good of the TV industry, Barack Obama needs to run for re-election in 2009.

Related Topics: TV Ratings, TV Ratings
  • Latest on Entertainment

    Stephen Vaughan / 20th Century Fox

    New Photos From Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter

    The film, based on Seth Grahame-Smith’s mashup novel, hits theaters this summer.

    Cancel the Oscars, Air the After-PartiesSlate

    Mark J. Terrill / AP

    Whitney Houston Remembered at Clive Davis Gala

    On Saturday night, hours after Houston’s death at the Beverly Hilton Hotel, Davis — Houston’s mentor, producer, champion and longtime friend — memorialized her at this year’s gala.

  • Dave

    James, haven’t you noticed? Barack Obama has already started running for re-election :)
    `
    Out of sheer curiosity, what are those 8 shows gaining viewers? It seems like CBS is the most successful network, but I see it often regarded as the lesser network.

  • Tom Shaw

    In my opinion, the situation is far more complex than the linked summary suggests. Yes, ratings are down on average after the strike – but compared to the last strike, they aren’t down nearly as much; the usual aggregate thrown around for the ’88 strike was ~20%.
    -
    The other complexity is the average age of shows: a bigger (albeit intermixed) issue than cable viewership is that broadcast TV has had an extremely hard time generating any new long term hits. Take a look at when the current Top 20 (18-49) shows were introduced:
    2008: The Mentalist, Fringe.
    2007: _Nothing_
    2006: Brothers & Sisters, 30 Rock, Heroes.
    2005: Criminal Minds, How I Met Your Mother
    2004: Here’s where you actually see a “good” year: House, Grey’s, Housewives, The Office, CSI:NY.
    -
    Simply put, the majority of hits on TV are at least half a decade old. Given how show costs rise with time, but ratings generally do not, network TV is looking at an even rougher patch than they are in now in a few years when the costs on these shows rise beyond the point where the nets can keep them.
    -
    @ Dave: CBS is tough to categorize. They tend to win big on total viewers, but their audience skews very old; e.g. The Mentalist has twice the overall viewers of House this year, but they have roughly the same number of 18-49 viewers. (And advertisers by and large only care about the 18-49 crowd, despite that demographics are making a lot more 50 year olds than 18 year olds.)

    But despite their being the oldest network, then are the only one with any “long term” success: The have the biggest new hit of the year (The Mentalist), some of the only mid-term hits (Criminal Minds, Mother), and the most long term hits (CSIs, NCIS). And the majority of shows that are improving from last year are on CBS. It’s just that their lineup is such a soul-crushing array of endless procedurals (mixed with some formula sitcoms) that it’s tough for anyone other than Sumner Redstone to get excited about the network.

  • melissa169a

    Not entirely true. Was paying $224.95 a month for trio (cable, line, phone) and had to down, so cut some of the cable options because we can wait for Netflix for Big Love, Dexter, Brotherhood and Californication, etc. and Mad Men, The Closer, etc. we get anyway. We also did it because we realized that we were watching way more network than we originally thought. Trace and and House, SVU; Bones, Life, L&O, CSI:NY; Criminal Minds (we love it), 30 Rock, The Office and ER (sigh); Friday, yeah I forgot Friday! there is nothing on; Cold Case, The Unit (a favorite) and Bros. & Sis. Also enjoy Top Chef, Project Runway, the occasional Housewives from Hell. So it was time to cut back. It’s been two months and we are fine. No nail biting, crying, whining. As long as we get MSNBC, we are okay. I think.

  • Ashman

    As a person who has been outside the demo for over a decade, and who, yes, watches the occasional CBS procedural, I don’t understand the constant cynicism towards people of a certain age who happen to enjoy that sort of television. Old folks watch more tv, and tend to spend just as much money (in fact right now, we are spending quite a bit more what with all our houses being paid off and all) then the younger set. I often look at American Idol and 24 and say, “don’t people realize that stuff is ridiculous crap?!” It calls to mind a rather great Boston Legal episode from a few weeks back, but no one here probably saw it, becaues horror! a non-serial!
    .
    Maybe the networks would be doing better if they tried to skew towards the older bon vivants instead of always chasing after the idiot frat boys of the world.
    .
    Also, GET OFF MY LAWN!!

  • James Poniewozik

    @ashman: Old folks do watch more TV–which is one reason exactly why they are worth less to advertisers. An advertiser wants to reach any customer in the cheapest way possible. If I know you watch 40 hours of TV a week, I will advertise to you on one of the cheaper programs you watch (say, the evening news or CNN). And I can assume you are more likely to see one of my ads, somewhere. Whereas if you watch 10 or 20 hours of TV a week, I’m more likely to pony up to reach you on The Office, e.g., even though it has fewer viewers–because I cannot be as confident I will reach you at all otherwise.

    There are other reasons too, some more specious and/or outdated than others.

    There are shows, by the way, that belie the idea that all old viewers want to watch is old-fashioned murder mysteries. Mad Men, for instance, has a pretty high viewership over 50 for a cult cable show (or had; I’m not sure offhand if its demos shifted the second season).

  • mshonk

    I understand the appeal of young viewers who are in the process of selecting their future brand loyality (Pepsi or Coke,etc), but why are the viewers 30-49 important?

  • Tom Shaw

    @ Dave again:
    These aren’t quite the same numbers (this author uses Live + next 7 days on DVR), vs the Live + Same Day on DVR as the study referenced in the link, but take a gander at:
    http://tvbythenumbers.com/2008/12/11/saturday-night-football-30-rock-lead-handful-of-shows-up-vs-fall-2007/9545
    Namely, the scripted shows with the biggest percentage improvement are Gossip Girl, 30 Rock, Supernatural, & How I Met Your Mother.
    In the comments, he mentions that the average for all shows vs. last year under this metric is -10%; that is actually less than shows declined after the last strike. People might forget about a show, but Tivo doesn’t, apparently.

  • http://www.grideffect.com/survivor-reunion-and-unrelated-news-items/ Grid Effect » Blog Archive » Survivor Reunion and Unrelated News Items

    [...] evidence that the Nielsen’s are an antiquated form of ratings measure: only eight of the 66 returning prime time television shows expanded their audience. Does anyone actually believe this? I mean, are we including online viewership? DVR and TIVO [...]

  • lou58lou

    I enjoy some of the broadcast shows. Ugly Betty, CSI, NCIS, Bones, House, The Bang Theory, American Idol. Dancing with the Stars, and now So you think you can dance. I also enjoy a new channel in my area that show movies all day long. We have dumped cable a long time ago 20+ years and WILL NOT GO BACK! I am also peeved with DirecTv. So we have chosen to go without either. I am also glad most of my shows are available online so I can catch up if I miss something. I think the digital switch will be good thing, as I am also able to watch more PBS shows thanks to going digital. I made a digital coffee can antenna (YouTube – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRS4GMGJr7M)and a signal booster to pick up the new digital channels. On our digital TV. So you do not have to spend a lot of money to pick up the new channels, just do a little bit of experimenting, and trial and error to find what works for your family, and if that does not work then you may try a store bought antenna (which did not work as well as my digital coffee can antenna)

blog comments powered by Disqus