NBC made its Jay Leno announcement official today, holding a press conference and issuing a press release that spelled out—somewhat—what Leno’s 10 p.m. E.T. scriptkiller will involve. From the release, in which Jeff Zucker actually uses, a la Robert Huggins, the phrase “new paradigm”:
Leno will sign off as host of The Tonight Show on May 29, 2009. His new show will showcase many of the features that have made Leno America’s late-night leader for more than a dozen years. Signature elements will include his opening monologue and well-known comedy segments “Headlines,” “Jaywalking” and “Battle of the Jaywalking All-Stars.”
Well, thank goodness for that. As with so many such network press conferences, Ben Silverman presented the idea as a no-brainer, industry-transforming coup; I seem to recall the announcement of Katie Couric as CBS anchor sounding somewhat the same. Leno’s show, Silverman said, is the perfect weapon for competing with the various media, including cable, that siphon off viewers at 10 p.m. E.T., because it’s the sort of thing people want to watch live, rather than time-shifting it on a DVR. “You want to watch it that night,” Silverman said, “and you want to watch it the next night.”
Which would be more persuasive if I had actually wanted to watch Leno last night. At least he was funny at the press conference, though. As was his boss. When a reporter asked what research NBC had done to determine that people preferred this type of show to 10 p.m. dramas, Leno Silverman quipped, ”Putting them on the air.” [Update: Fixed, on a tip from the omniscient Alan Sepinwall, to correct the author of the joke. Get that man a late-night show!]
It remains an interesting story. Meanwhile, some of the unanswered questions bubbling up the day after the news broke, in no particular order:
* So what’s the bar for success here? What kind of rating does NBC need to be happy with the Leno show? And what kind of rating will industry observers—advertisers, critics such as myself—consider a success? (Good question, self! I’ll have to get back to you on that!)
* CBS seems to be in a good position to sit tight for now, having a locked-in audience for shows like CSI: Miami and Without a Trace. What does ABC do? Does it counterprogram aggressively older, figuring that Jay and CBS’s murder mysteries will be in a death battle for the Olds? Or does it concede that it, too, is essentially in the eldercare business at 10 p.m., and cede the Youngs to cable?
* If Bravo (and Sci Fi, and USA) is the new 10 p.m. on NBC, what does ABC counter with? Does it rebrand Lifetime? ABC Family? (Why not? Bravo used to be “the arts channel.”)
* How much does Conan O’Brien hate this? How much do Nightline’s producers love it?
* How many of Jay’s current fans are Jay fans (who will follow him to 10 p.m., and change habits) and how many are Tonight fans (who will not necessarily)?
* I know we’re not allowed to say this today, but what if the thing just bombs? Bombs bad? Do we get the return of Dateline? Does anyone want to see what the people who brought us Kath and Kim will do if they suddenly have to fill a five-hour schedule hole?
