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My Emmy List: Dream, Settle, Expect

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While I was away earlier this week, I asked you which actors or series you dreamed of winning each category, which ones you’d settle for, and which ones you actually expect to win.

Well, fair’s fair. My own Dream, Settle, Expect list (it’s like Marry, Boff, or Kill for TV nerds!) follows the jump. (And remember to watch this space for my Emmy liveblog Sunday night.)

Drama series: Dream: Mad Men; Settle: Dexter; Expect: House.
(Mad Men had the most out-of-the-blue astonishing first season since The Sopranos, but I don’t think Emmy is ready to hand over the statue. It might be ready for Dexter, a pay-cable series—no offense to Lost, but if season 3 didn’t win, season 4 is not going to—but House gives Emmy a chance to reward a well-reviewed, but high-rated, network series. Hey, I could have been more cynical and picked Boston Legal.)

Comedy series: Dream: The Office; Settle: 30 Rock; Expect: Two and a Half Men
(Of NBC’s two sitcoms, The Office had the stronger attenuated season, returning to its trademark cringe humor, but again I’ll bet on the hardware going to the commercial favorite, which has its critical fans too.)

Miniseries: Dream, Settle, Expect: John Adams
(Cranford was Masterpiece Theatre by the numbers; Andromeda Strain and Tin Men Man were abominations.)

Actor, Drama: Dream: Bryan Cranston; Settle: Jon Hamm; Expect: James Spader
(OK, I am at least this cynical. Cranston transformed himself and Hamm took the TV world by surprise. But you don’t bet against the Spader—though, really, I would settle for anyone but him.)

Actor, Comedy: Dream: Alec Baldwin; Settle: Steve Carell; Expect: Baldwin
(This time I expect my heart to win out—Baldwin owned this season, if without the movie-star advantage Emmy confers.)

Actor, Movie or Miniseries: Dream: Ricky Gervais; Settle and Expect: Paul Giamatti
(Gervais showed depth and range in Extras’ finale, but let’s not kid ourselves.)

Actress, Drama: Dream: Any of the Big Love leads who were not nominated; Settle and Expect: Glenn Close
(It won’t even be close, which is to say, it will be Close.)

Actress, Comedy: Dream: Mary-Louise Parker; Settle: Tina Fey; Expect: Julia Louis-Dreyfus
(Seriously. Old Christine built a lot of buzz last season, and no offense to Hamish Linklater, she was the reason.)

Actress, Movie or Miniseries: Dream, Settle, Expect: Phylicia Rashad
(The best of a strong group of female performances in A Raisin in the Sun, the former Mrs. Huxtable should have little problem here.)

Supporting Actor, Drama: Dream: Michael Emerson; Settle and Expect: Ted Danson
(I don’t need to plead Emerson’s case around here, but well-known comic actors like Danson get—and in this case deserve—big credit for transformational dramatic roles.)

Supporting Actor, Comedy: Dream: Rainn Wilson; Settle: Neil Patrick Harris; Expect: Jeremy Piven
(Neither Wilson—who does a fantastic job keeping Dwight Schrute human and just this side of unbelievable—nor Harris would really surprise me, though. Nothing against Piven, by the way, but Entourage’s awful fourth season kept Ari so peripheral he couldn’t do his best work.)

Supporting Actress, Drama: Dream: Dianne Wiest; Settle: Chandra Wilson; Expect: Sandra Oh
(Great performance from Wiest in actor/actress showcase In Treatment; Wilson’s performance is consistently the best on Grey’s Anatomy, but I expect her to be eclipsed by Oh.)

Supporting Actress, Comedy: Dream, Settle, Expect: Amy Poehler
(Honestly, this one’s a wild guess, but as I’ve written before, Poehler’s Hillary Clinton was one of the great SNL political impersonations, in that she created an interpretation, not just an imitation, of her subject.)

Disclaimer: Neither or I nor TIME.com will indemnify anyone foolish enough to wager money on the basis of the foregoing.