One more point I meant to bring up in this morning’s Idol Watch. Typically, Idol’s ratings slide off a bit in the early weeks of the finals, until the finale gets close. Even though I like the show (I’m serious!), I can see why. For at least the first month and a half, there may be a surprise ejection, but basically you’re going through the drawn-out process of eliminating all the singers who you know from the get-go are simply never going to win.
I don’t think it’s an insult to acknowledge this fact. They’re all better singers than I am. They’re all better singers than most people, including most of the thousands of people who auditioned. But let’s be honest: there is no planet on which, say, David Hernandez is going to win American Idol–not even Planet Male Stripper. Ramiele is not going to win, though I could see her lasting a while, in that inexplicably bulletproof, Nikki McKibbin/Jasmine Trias kind of way.
So I ask you this: Which singers this year have a realistic chance of winning? I don’t mean likely to win, just plausibly able to pull it off as a dark horse if they catch a few really lucky breaks–as likely to win as, oh, Elliott Yamin. (And while it’s easy for me to say it after last night, I don’t think David Archuleta is the foregone conclusion everyone is making him out to be. LaKisha Jones was considered inevitable early on last year.)
My list: David A. (despite his new vulnerability), David Cook, Brooke White, Carly Smithson and Jason Castro. I’ll maybe throw in Chikezie after last night, but probably not. For the rest, it’s not if, but when. Period. (Sorry, Amanda.) Anyone want to make a case for anyone else, or can I take the next five or six weeks off?