Tuned In

Fall Walkup Poll: Pick the Hits!

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Every year around now, people ask me which fall shows I think are going to be hits and which ones will tank. Every year around now, I tell them that it’s my job to decide whether shows are good and interesting, not whether they’ll make money for some giant corporation. If I were in the hit-picking business, I’d have a corner office in L.A., and my assistant would be writing this blog for me.

But it’s fun to try what you’re bad at, so I’ll take a couple shots. First, the misses. My surprise pick: Private Practice will be a disappointment. At least against expectations (which are huge). It’s just a gut feeling. (I haven’t seen new episodes other than last spring’s backdoor pilot.) First of all, the surest thing any given season is that some sure things will fail: Joey, The Fugitive, Studio 60. (CSI: Miami was an exception, but CSI: New York disappointed against expectations.) In the case of Private Practice, I’ve been hearing more grumbling from Grey’s Anatomy fans lately (admittedly I’m not one), and I’m not sure there’s the appetite for more Grey’s that ABC thinks there is. I’m not saying it’ll be canceled, but I don’t think they’ll be popping champagne corks.

I could also include Pushing Daisies here, but frankly, despite all the critical buzz, I’m not sure anyone is expecting it to be a blockbuster hit.

And as for the hits, another theme of the past few years is that they’ve come from shows that were largely off the radar of pre-season buzz lists. (See, e.g., Heroes or the midseason Grey’s.) So I’m going to lay odds on Dirty Sexy Money, which was off my radar but people keep asking me about, and–what the hell–NBC’s Chuck, even though (or precisely because) I think Reaper does much the same thing much better.

Disclaimer: before wagering or making business decisions on the basis of my predictions, ensure that your retirement and college-savings accounts are already fully funded.

OK, your turn. Which shows hit big this fall? And which ones bust? (No fair everyone picking Carpoolers for the latter.)